Bitcoin settled around $81,280 this weekend, gaining about 4% over 24 hours, driven by the emergence of a « golden cross, » a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns of a potential « liquidity trap » and notes that price declines during the formation of this signal are perfectly normal. Two opposing historical scenarios are emerging: a bullish scenario similar to 2019 and 2023, with a decisive breakout above psychological resistance and weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, or a bearish scenario reminiscent of 2014-2015, with price rejection at current levels and the formation of a lower high. The key level to monitor according to Cowen is the 50-week SMA, which will determine whether this represents a genuine trend reversal or another trap for overly optimistic buyers.
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