Traders on the Kalshi platform assign a 74 % probability to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh using the word ‘oil’ and over 50 % to the word ‘shock’ during his Wednesday press conference. This anticipation follows the exchange of attacks between Iran and the United States, which had briefly pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel before it fell back below $89. Regarding interest rates, one Kalshi contract projects nearly 75 % odds that the Fed will maintain rates at current levels, while the chances of a hike this week have risen to 38 %, up from 16 % last week.
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