France’s 10-year borrowing yield rose above 5.1% on October 22, 2026, compared with 3.4% for the German Bund, widening the OAT-Bund spread to 170 basis points. The government’s interest burden, estimated at about 74 billion euros in 2026, is expected to exceed 100 billion euros from 2028 and reach 125.8 billion euros by 2030, while public debt has climbed to 3.615 trillion euros, or 119.2% of GDP. The increase is being amplified by the ECB’s quantitative tightening, the normalization of Japanese interest rates and competition from artificial intelligence for global savings. Demand for French government bonds is currently 2.28 times supply, while markets are focused on Moody’s decision and the possible use of the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument.
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