Fitch Ratings expects Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft to increase capital expenditure by more than 75% in 2026 to approximately $700 billion, before spending exceeds $1 trillion annually from 2027 to 2029. The agency warns that rising competition among AI model developers and greater price sensitivity among enterprise customers are weakening the prospects for monetizing those investments. Middle East tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and tighter financing conditions could intensify the pressure before 2027. Fitch says a pullback would leave semiconductors and certain data-center financing structures particularly exposed, while surging corporate bond issuance raises concerns reminiscent of the late-1990s technology bubble.
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