A Reuters poll of 104 economists revealed total consensus: all expect the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. However, prediction markets diverge sharply, with Polymarket pricing in roughly 20% odds for a 25 basis point hike at this meeting and 57-61% probability for at least one hike before year-end. Nine of 18 Fed officials anticipate at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, creating a gap between forecasters and traders. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both reacted inversely to rising rate hike probabilities throughout July 2026, with each increase in hike odds exerting notable pressure on digital asset prices.
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