Investors are closely monitoring the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes amid a recovery in global government bond markets following a recent sell-off. Market pricing shows growing confidence in a pause for interest rate hikes through September, with the probability rising to 72.5% from 60% a week earlier. The likelihood of a rate increase in October 2026 remains subdued at 23.5%. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August jobs report and inflation figures, will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
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