European gas prices have surged amid fears of disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran, with Dutch TTF natural-gas futures, a key European benchmark, climbing above €100/MWh, their highest level since December 2022. Geopolitical uncertainty is tightening global energy supplies and raising concerns about winter gas availability in Europe, compounded by EU gas storage levels sitting notably below the seasonal average. Market participants are closely monitoring tensions that could cause further disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East, a key region for both natural gas and crude oil. Prediction markets currently price the probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 5.5%, a more cautious stance compared with previous weeks. Observers will track developments in the Iran conflict, OPEC decisions, European production levels and winter weather forecasts to assess the continent’s energy security.
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