Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank and member of the ECB Governing Council, warned against market expectations that the ECB has locked itself into a predictable interest rate trajectory. The ECB raised rates in June and September 2026, its first tightening cycle since 2023, driven by inflation climbing above 3%, partly due to higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. ECB staff projections forecast average inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Radev emphasized that past rate hikes do not dictate future ones, with monetary policy remaining data-dependent.
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