The energy sector’s rally could lose momentum if oil supply recovers, weighing on crude prices and energy companies’ earnings. The S&P 500 Energy sector has gained approximately 42% year to date, reflecting its close sensitivity to crude oil prices. Prediction markets now assign a 7.5% probability of crude reaching a new all-time high by December 31, down from 16% a week earlier. OPEC production decisions, global demand fluctuations and geopolitical developments will remain key factors for oil prices and the sector’s performance.
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