The dollar index fell to approximately 99.5 on August 17, touching its weakest level in three months with a decline of about 0.17% in a single session. The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September is now estimated at roughly 67%, compared with traders being almost evenly split a month ago. July’s jobs report showed diminished payroll gains alongside downward revisions to prior months, while inflation and consumer spending came in muted. The Jackson Hole economic symposium and the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes will be closely watched by markets for signals about any shift in the Fed’s posture. The break below the 100 level for the dollar index, which had been holding above that threshold since early 2026, signals a turning point in the dominant market narrative.
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