Despite global oil supply reaching 105.4 million barrels per day in October, diesel prices are expected to remain elevated because of limited refinery capacity. Refinery runs fell to 81.3 million barrels per day, preventing the crude oil surplus from passing through fully to diesel prices. In Europe, diesel remains approximately 77% above its pre-war level. Markets expect crude oil to stabilize rather than surge, with only a 4.5% probability of a new all-time high by year-end and roughly a 3% probability of WTI reaching $160 in November 2026. OPEC production strategies, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, changes in refinery output, and supply and demand forecasts from the IEA and the Energy Information Administration remain the main factors to monitor.
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