A coalition of Democratic senators led by Jeff Merkley has urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to restrict or ban prediction market contracts tied to wildfires, arguing that potential profits could incentivize arson. During the devastating Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025, over $1.2 million in wagers were placed on fire-related outcomes through offshore platforms. No confirmed incidents of arson have been linked to prediction market activity, but senators fear a theoretical risk. Regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket already avoid listing such contracts in the United States, with actual activity occurring on sites largely outside the CFTC’s direct jurisdiction.
Source: Read the original article
