The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 dropped to 25% on Kalshi on September 13, down from 82% in February. The Senate is set to consider the bill on September 15, with a separate market putting the probability of a Senate vote before October 1 at 94%. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and would need at least 7 Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold. The legislation, known as H.R. 3633, passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. More than $8 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. Three points of disagreement remain: a ban on public officials holding crypto assets, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi protocols and non-custodial developers.
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