Citigroup currency strategists have expressed a negative outlook on the US dollar, influenced by expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve, approaching midterm elections, and the US Treasury’s planned increase in debt buybacks. The dollar index stood near a three-month low at approximately 98.8 on August 20, 2026. The US Treasury decided to double long-dated debt buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation beginning September 9, 2026, contributing to lower long-term Treasury yields. On prediction markets, the probability for gold hitting $4,600 in August has surged to 57% from 33% a week ago.
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