The CIA employed a deception campaign and classified technology to locate a downed U.S. Air Force officer in Iran, according to CBS News. This was followed by U.S. military action including bombing and drone strikes targeting nearby IRGC positions, as well as the entry of over 90 American troops into Iranian territory for a rescue operation. Markets interpret these actions as a significant escalation but not directly indicative of an immediate full airspace closure by Iran. The probability of Iran implementing a full airspace closure by December 31 has decreased, while odds for a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 remain relatively stable.
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