The STAR50, which groups 50 companies listed on Shanghai’s technology board, lost 39.8% between July 9 and October 26, 2026, erasing nearly $480 billion in market value according to Reuters. Over the same dates, Bitcoin gained 26.6%, while the CSI 300 fell 15.9%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.5% and US semiconductor stocks declined 14.5%. Only one of 9,201 periods observed for the S&P 500 recorded a loss equal to or greater than the STAR50’s, but these overlapping periods do not represent independent crash probabilities. Data on ETFs, credit and funding are mixed: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $636 million in net outflows on October 22, followed by $110 million in inflows on October 26. Wider credit spreads, greater funding pressure and persistent withdrawals would strengthen the case for contagion reaching Bitcoin.
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