China remains the world’s leading exporter despite U.S. tariffs, with $216 billion in exports to the U.S. year-to-date in 2025. According to Goldman Sachs, these low-cost Chinese imports are reducing goods prices in non-U.S. developed markets. UBS highlights a $112 billion discrepancy between U.S. and Chinese trade statistics, attributing it to tariff avoidance. The financial institution notes that for every 1 percentage point increase in Chinese exports to a country since 2024, there is a 0.5% decline in goods prices, lowering prices by an average of 0.6% in non-U.S. developed markets. However, the U.S. trade war means America will not benefit from these longer-term disinflationary effects.
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