California has announced the replacement of its top-two primary system with traditional primaries and the return to Democratic-drawn congressional maps instead of an independent commission for the 2026 midterms. These decisions mark a reversal of voter-backed reforms aimed at promoting good governance. Rick Caruso’s odds for the 2026 gubernatorial election remain very low at 0.1% YES, stable for several weeks. The prediction market on California’s billionaire wealth tax has decreased to 27.5% YES from 30%, reflecting a political climate less favorable to progressive taxation measures.
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