According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is roughly a one-in-three chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate at the conclusion of its July 28-29 meeting. The current federal funds rate target sits at 3.5-3.75%, with a 61-63% probability that the Fed holds rates steady. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 64% probability of at least one rate hike in 2026, with 49.5% odds by September. Rising oil prices appear to be the primary catalyst behind this shift in expectations. When rates go up, liquidity tightens and investors tend to pull money from volatile, speculative assets like bitcoin.
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