Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility has settled between 40% and 47% in 2026, down from historical averages above 80%. However, volatility tied to sudden price jumps has risen by 71% compared to the first year of spot Bitcoin ETF trading. Bitcoin reached an all-time high around $126,200 in October 2025 before dropping to near $58,000 by mid-2026, a drawdown of approximately 53-54%, compared to previous cycles that saw 70-82% declines. The emerging pattern is described as staircase-style price action, where Bitcoin climbs gradually then drops abruptly during corrections, explaining why average volatility and extreme swings can move in opposite directions.
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