Bitcoin trades near $77,381 with Glassnode estimating 68% of circulating supply is profitable at this level, up from 65% in May, representing roughly 600,000 additional BTC worth approximately $47 billion. About 1.05 million BTC held at a loss sits between $83,000 and $86,000, forming the next major supply test for a potential breakout. US Bitcoin ETFs saw average inflows of $290 million per day in August but are now experiencing outflows of approximately $236 million this week, testing whether demand can absorb sellers. The macro backdrop is tightening with rising bond yields and oil near $95.63, with markets assigning roughly two-thirds odds to a September Fed rate hike. Key dates ahead include the jobs report on September 4, CPI on September 11, and the Fed meeting September 15-16.
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