Bitwise and the Bank for International Settlements offer two contrasting views on AI’s impact on Bitcoin. The first estimates that nearly all macroeconomic scenarios support Bitcoin’s price, whether through AI abundance, a recession, or modest productivity gains. The second, in BIS Working Paper No. 1381, models a fourth path where automation drives consumption’s share of GDP down from 69% to 62.1% and potential growth from 2% to 1.6%, with real wages settling roughly 15% below the non-automation baseline. The US trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, largely driven by AI hardware imports, and five of twelve Fed districts reported headcount reductions through attrition due to AI. The net effect on Bitcoin will depend on whether new capital flowing into the cryptocurrency outweighs the reduced purchasing power of households.
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