In a CryptoSlate simulation using 100,000 paths and 1,096 historical daily returns, 50.4% of Bitcoin paths crossed the $126,198 record at least once within a year, but only 34.8% ended above it. The 15.6 percentage-point gap highlights the risk of falling back after a recovery: 42.1% of paths crossed the threshold before subsequently closing below it, while the median maximum drawdown before the first crossing reached 18.9%. Among seven selected historical recoveries, four fell back below their previous record within 30 days, and all seven experienced a correction of at least 20% within 90 days after their first crossing. CryptoSlate’s one-year forecast puts the median terminal price at $124,281 on October 26, 2027, from a reference close of $80,007, but its GARCH model did not outperform its strongest baseline in the held-out test.
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