Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with 10-year US Treasury yield changes stands at just -0.17, close enough to zero that statisticians would call it noise, sharply diverging from gold, which registers -0.41 over the same period. The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, reaching levels between 5.25% and 5.33%, multi-year highs that have sent tremors through bond markets. US gross federal debt blew past $40 trillion in August 2026, hitting approximately $40.13 trillion. Despite this challenging macro backdrop, Bitcoin traded in a range between roughly $63,000 and $86,000 throughout 2026. The 90-day Bitcoin-gold correlation reached 0.59 by early September 2026, the highest reading since 2020, indicating that Bitcoin is decoupling from bond yields while moving more closely with gold.
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