Bitcoin closed the week at $74,968, 0.7% below its 50-week moving average of $75,488, after spending seven consecutive weeks above it. According to Galaxy Research, the move resembles the fakeouts recorded just after the 2011 and 2019 bear-market bottoms, neither of which broke the four-year cycle. During those two previous episodes, Bitcoin remained well above its lows before reaching new highs. From the $123,524 peak reached in October 2025, it fell 51.8% to $59,517 in June, then rebounded above the moving average. The bullish case remains intact if Bitcoin reclaims the average and holds it over the next month, while a close below $59,517 would undermine that thesis.
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