Bitcoin’s current valuation sits at the lowest end of the Rainbow model, trading 66% below the $186,700 model price. The volatility-adjusted Z-Score has fallen to -2.293, below the 2022 low of -1.979. The current cycle has reached day 1,363, roughly 69 to 73 days from previous recorded bottoms at days 1,432 and 1,436. Bitcoin has declined 49 to 50% from its $126,000 October peak, while the MVRV ratio remains near 1.2, above the 1.0 level associated with deeper valuation resets.
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