Markets now price a greater risk of rapid monetary tightening, with a 13.6% probability of a 50-basis-point rate increase in December, versus 86.4% for a 25-basis-point move, according to a November 10 CME FedWatch snapshot. Bitcoin fell below $73,000 after US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.5 billion in net outflows from November 2 to November 9, while the US two-year Treasury yield rose 19 basis points. The personal consumption expenditures report on November 25 and the jobs report on December 4 will determine whether inflation and the labor market justify faster tightening. A 25-basis-point increase remains the base case for December 9, but persistent ETF outflows, weak spot demand and elevated leverage could push Bitcoin toward $60,000 to $63,000.
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