Kalshi traders assign a 79% probability to a 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with 19% pricing in no change. US inflation rebounded in August with CPI up 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, with energy driving most of the upside at +16.3% annually. The real market tension lies in the tone of the accompanying message rather than the hike itself, which is largely priced in at 79%. Three scenarios are on the table, ranging from hawkish guidance pressuring Bitcoin to an end-of-cycle signal supporting risk assets, with a surprise hold creating volatility as the third option.
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