According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin fell 4.2% between September 30 and October 25, dropping from $83,567 to $80,051, after five consecutive years of October gains. Its average October performance between 2020 and 2025 was 18.1%, compared with a 3.8% loss in 2025 and another decline expected in 2026. Spot demand has remained negative since October 14, cumulative demand fell by approximately 76,000 BTC over 30 days, and the Coinbase premium stayed negative. If selling pressure persists, the $73,000 to $77,600 range, which contains several technical indicators, is a support area to monitor. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision and the US midterm elections on November 3 may also influence the market, but a sustained recovery will depend mainly on buyers returning and institutional capital flowing back in.
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