Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, sent clients a note outlining three macroeconomic trajectories depending on AI’s fate, and in all three cases he forecasts Bitcoin ending higher. The first scenario assumes default by data center borrowers followed by a 2008-style recession, paired with a public bailout he estimates at near 100% probability. The second scenario describes a world of abundance where AI crashes production costs, leaving inherently scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin to appreciate in value. The third scenario corresponds to a soft landing with stable growth and data center debt honored. The four major US hyperscalers have committed nearly $400 billion in 2025 alone, much of it financed through private debt.
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