The Bank of Korea expects South Korea’s semiconductor production to continue growing in the first half of 2027, driven by spending on AI infrastructure and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) output. Demand is expected to remain ahead of supply, although price increases should slow compared with earlier phases of the cycle. Samsung Electronics has already contracted 80% of its planned 2027 memory output, including all of its HBM production, while new capacity at SK hynix’s M15X facility and Samsung’s Pyeongtaek site is expected to ramp up gradually. The central bank estimates that corporate bonuses of 60 to 70 trillion won from major memory producers could add 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points to private consumption growth in 2027. The forecast nevertheless depends on continued investment in AI infrastructure by data centers and on the timing of new production capacity coming online.
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