The Bank of Canada’s latest survey reveals deteriorating business sentiment and rising inflation expectations following failed trade negotiations with the United States. Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods worth approximately $28 billion, prompting Canada to vow retaliation. Prediction markets now show an increased likelihood of a rate hike at the October announcement, with 32.2% odds for a 25 basis point increase and 68% odds for no change. Observers will closely monitor statements from Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers for signs of a potential policy shift.
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