Blockchain data provider Bitquery analyzed Polymarket prediction market performance during the 2026 US primaries and found that systematically backing the favorite in every race would have resulted in a 4% loss, despite an 87% win rate for those favorites. Candidates priced at 90 cents or higher won 177 out of 182 races, while those priced between 50 and 90 cents won only 71% of races despite an average price of 77 cents. The study covered 273 Senate, House and governor primaries across all 50 states using Polygon trade data. Bitquery notes, however, that these primary results may not carry over to November’s general elections, which attract significantly higher trading volumes and polling data.
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