Strategic waterways worldwide are experiencing growing disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea, and Sea of Azov are affected by attacks and threats linked to U.S.-Iran tensions, Houthi activity in Yemen, and Russia-Ukraine hostilities. Prediction markets now price the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by September 30 at 18.5%, down from 22% a week ago, reflecting concerns over a prolonged period of instability. These disruptions are impacting global trade flows and forcing shipping companies to reroute their vessels.
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