CLARITY Act passage odds have fallen to 30% from 60% on June 5, yet Bitcoin trades around $63,500, above the roughly $61,900 level recorded that day. Charles Schwab’s analysis shows that changes in legislative odds explain only 4.3% of Bitcoin’s daily price variation, suggesting the market has already priced in potential failure. If the bill passes anyway, it could revive institutional demand, as illustrated by the $1.97 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs this month, including roughly $2 billion for BlackRock’s IBIT alone. FM Intelligence envisions a bullish scenario at $135,000 to $200,000 with a 25% probability, partly conditioned on CLARITY becoming law before the November midterms.
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