Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, is advising traders to watch EUR/JPY rather than Fed comments to anticipate Bitcoin’s next move. He forecasts the pair will drop to 140 or lower by June, tied to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s strategy to weaken the euro, and identifies French banks (BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale) as the main risk factor, handling roughly 20% of US repo lending. Hayes expects the Fed to accelerate its RPM program, which has already grown its balance sheet by $22 billion per month since December, potentially reaching $100 billion monthly. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $77,000 after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech before recovering around $78,000, gaining nearly 22% over thirty days.
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