Brett Winton, chief futurist at ARK Invest, believes AI will substitute for knowledge workers rather than simply assisting them, targeting a global wage bill of roughly $30 trillion. ARK projects AI-driven software spending could reach $3 trillion to $7 trillion annually by 2030, potentially doubling or tripling the current global software market. AI inference costs have declined by more than 99% year over year, and frontier model companies could capture an enterprise value of $15 trillion to $20 trillion. ARK forecasts AI could accelerate annual GDP growth to 7%, compared to the historical US average of 2-3%. Even redirecting 10-20% of the knowledge-worker wage bill toward software and AI services would constitute one of the largest wealth transfers in economic history.
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