Jim Zelter, president of Apollo Global Management, forecasts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will settle between 4.25% and 5.5% for an extended period. This outlook is driven by deglobalization impacting supply chains, massive AI investments, and persistent US fiscal pressures. Apollo’s credit origination business has been generating spreads of 280 to 350 basis points over Treasury yields. Investment-grade corporate debt issuance could surpass net US Treasury issuance, with some projections suggesting yields could exceed 5.2% by mid-2026 if fiscal uncertainties deepen.
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