According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, artificial intelligence spending added 0.9 percentage points to annualized US real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026, compared with 0.2 points in 2024 and 0.5 points in 2025. US real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, while business investment rose 12.7% and contributed 1.78 points to growth. More than three quarters of AI’s contribution came from infrastructure, including data centers, chips and networking equipment, rather than applications. Morgan Stanley estimates hyperscaler capital expenditures at $800 billion to $900 billion in 2026 and expects them to exceed $1 trillion in 2027, leaving the US economy exposed to concentrated technology spending.
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