Since 2022, AI investments have concentrated on a handful of US tech firms, the “Magnificent Seven,” at the expense of US sovereign debt, developing nations and traditional industrial sectors. Cross-border holdings tied to the US have quadrupled since 2008 to reach approximately 80% of net creditor nations’ foreign holdings. According to a Nomura analysis published on September 30, 2026, this concentration masks a growing risk premium on dollar assets, while projected AI capex could reach $10 trillion between 2025 and 2032. An AI reversal could trigger equity corrections, capital flight, a weaker dollar and simultaneously widen both the US fiscal deficit and the current-account deficit.
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