Several economists this summer believe the correction in artificial intelligence valuations will take the form of a gradual deflation rather than a crash similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble. AI contributed 1.1 percentage points to US GDP growth, and Jason Furman estimates it could explain up to 92% of US GDP growth in the first half of 2025, yet only 13% of US workers use AI daily and adoption is declining in companies with over 250 employees. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, estimates that nearly $1.5 trillion in debt has financed AI expansion since late 2022, and accuses AI of draining liquidity that could have otherwise flowed to Bitcoin and digital assets. A slow deflation could allow a gradual rotation of capital toward crypto, unlike a brutal purge that would likely have dragged down all risk assets.
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