The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 0.3% in October, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is forecast at 0.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. A more than 4% decline in gasoline prices provided some relief to consumers, but Federal Reserve officials fear that tariff pressures, the Iran war and strong demand from artificial intelligence data centers are keeping inflation persistent. Bank of America estimates annual headline inflation at 3.8% and core inflation at 2.7%, both above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets are pricing in a greater than 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s December meeting, as the labor market remains solid and growth reached 3.4% in the third quarter.
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