Pete Hegseth’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget faces significant obstacles after the Democrats’ victory in the recent midterm elections. The plan includes a $1.15 trillion base budget and an additional $350 billion sought through budget reconciliation. Adam Smith, who is expected to lead the House Armed Services Committee, has advocated for a defense budget below $1 trillion. The implied probability of Hegseth being removed as secretary of defense fell from 40% to 15.5% over the past week, while global defense spending is projected to reach $8 trillion over the next decade.
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