Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi are pricing in a 44.2% probability that the US federal government will partially shut down on December 12, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET. The contract will resolve “Yes” only if the closure is officially confirmed through directives from the Office of Management and Budget or the Office of Personnel Management. Current stopgap funding expires on December 11, while Congress had not finalized any full-year appropriations bills as of mid-November. Trading activity is modest, with about 16,000 contracts and $16,000 in daily volume, which can amplify price movements. The probability fell into the 30% range in late October before rebounding above 40%, following two earlier 2026 funding deadlines that resulted in shutdowns, one lasting 75 to 79 days.
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