Bank of America Global Research forecasts a 25-basis-point increase in the Federal Reserve rate in January 2027, following expected hikes in December 2026 and March 2027. The current federal-funds target rate stands at 3.75%–4.00%, with an effective rate of 3.88%. The revised forecast follows recent economic indicators showing persistent inflation and robust employment. Markets may interpret this as a more aggressive monetary tightening path and a higher terminal policy rate than previously expected. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming statements, economic projections, and inflation and employment data will determine whether further rate hikes are likely.
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