As Anthropic approaches its IPO, venture capital is under strain, with high valuations, low liquidity and difficult exits. According to PitchBook, reaching a $5 billion valuation now takes 80% less time but requires 74% more capital, contributing to AI-related debt and potentially slowing data-center expansion. The IPO window remains closed for most high-growth technology companies, while mergers and acquisitions are experiencing valuation compression, including Airtable’s acquisition for $1.28 billion compared with its $11.7 billion peak in 2021. Recent IPO performances have been mixed: CoreWeave and Circle are up 52% and 116%, respectively, while Figma and Cerebras are down about 42% and 45%. Anthropic’s performance will be a key indicator for the sector’s future, as it could either validate private AI valuations or fuel doubts about how excessive they are.
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