James Lavish believes the Bitcoin cycle has bottomed and that its price could peak between $400,000 and $500,000 by mid-2029. He links Bitcoin highs to the halving, the four-year election cycle and the broader economic cycle. Under his power-law framework, a one-standard-deviation move above the mean would be consistent with that range, while he would be “absolutely shocked” if Bitcoin were not between $200,000 and $300,000 by then. He maintains his cycle-based forecast despite increased odds of a U.S. rate hike and volatility in technology stocks driven by short-term interest rates.
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