Derive options traders now assign a 31% probability to Bitcoin closing below $70,000 by Christmas, up from 15% a week earlier. The chances of closing above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%, while the probability of topping $90,000 dropped from 18% to 6%. Demand for downside protection increased sharply, with puts accounting for 55% of premiums traded on the platform, compared with 36% the previous week. Options trading volume rose 37% to $418 million, and one wallet spent about $14,000 to hedge 300 BTC against a fall below $60,000 by November 27. The repricing comes amid concerns about US inflation and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, while Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive weekly losses.
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