Oil prices advanced after the US midterm elections as market participants assessed the risk of renewed conflict between the United States and Iran. Brent and WTI crude-oil futures gained more than 10% in October before falling by around 12% for the week on diplomatic hopes. The increase reflects concerns about potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for global oil supplies. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 is estimated at 8.5%, while expectations of further de-escalation continue to pressure prices. Markets will closely monitor US-Iran relations, OPEC production decisions and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
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