The US Treasury’s November 4 financing plan points to a possible liquidity respite in December, between two projected cash peaks in late November and late January. The Treasury estimates that its General Account at the Fed could peak at $1.025 trillion, plus or minus $50 billion, in late November 2026 and late January 2027, compared with $850 billion projected for the end of December. The planned reduction in Treasury bill auctions, which reflects expected tax receipts, does not guarantee easier funding because those receipts can absorb bank reserves. An actual decline in Treasury cash, combined with steadier reserves and easier funding conditions, would strengthen the case for temporary support for Bitcoin, while a rebuilding cash balance in January could limit that effect.
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